Another Pokémon GO event is here, but it might not be what shiny hunters are looking for. The “Tricky” event was a surprise drop at the beginning of April – one meant to celebrate April Fools’ Day by increasing spawns for prankster Pokémon. This saw the debut of two new shiny forms: one for Croagunk and one for Sudowoodo. Players might assume that these Pokémon being event stars would make them more likely to be shiny. They’d be wrong.
The Silph Road is a group of hardcore Pokémon GO players that take a scientific approach to the game. They study the various probability-related aspects of the game and use the data to help other players. A recent study revealed the odds of finding shiny Pokémon in March and April 2020 events.
By fielding reports from players in many different locations, Silph Road “researchers have encountered 1,768 Sudowoodo and 2,211 Croagunk, and have bagged 4 shinies of each.” They note that such a ratio is average, with no indication of increased odds for the event.
Meanwhile, the two events that did have boosted shiny odds were “A Drive To Investigate” and the debut of GO Battle League. Both events had significant paid components, which may indicate shinies being used to entice microtransactions. It could also just be that the shiny Pokémon involved, Timburr and Nincada, are rare. Niantic tends to increase shiny odds for rare Pokémon to account for their scarcity.
Whatever the intention behind shiny probability, don’t expect to field a team of Shiny Toxicroak anytime soon.
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